Monday, October 12, 2015

Alaska Governor Proposes Allowing Barrels of Oil to Vote

OK, it's not quite that crazy (yet). But he's heading in that direction:

In other news, Oregon Republians urge more timber clearcutting to fund forest preservation efforts, yet another study by the Heartland Institute has found that smoking is the quickest and most efficacious way to relieve the unpleasant symptoms of nicotine withdrawal, and the NRA proposes that all Americans be required to carry guns in order to reduce the US epidemic of gun violence.

Sunday, October 11, 2015

Willie Soon is Hiding

Odd -- Willie Soon is the lead author on an Earth-Science Reviews paper titled "Re-evaluating the role of solar variability on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since the 19th century," and they list him as "corresponding author." But unlike all their other papers, they don't actually give his email address.

Instead, the usual links to the corresponding author just go around in a loop.

Strange. Why wouldn't Willie Soon want to correspond with people who are reading his paper, if he was didn't have something to hide?

The Backwards Evidence That Climate Deniers Use as Proof They're Winning

It's the latest amazing(!) rebound (don't strain your eyes trying to find it here) in Volkswagon's stock price, via Eric Worrall at Woo-What.

Because, you know, any letup of the so-called "free market" in punishing VW for their massive fraud -- fraud that killed ~ 40 Americans (hope none of them are Eric Worrall's relations!), and destroyed tens of billions of dollars of VW stockholder value -- is now apparently a VICTORY for climate deniers, who don't seem to mind breathing in particulate pollution as long as they can use it for political purposes.

In essence, Eric Worrall is rooting for more fraud like VW's, whose excess particulates cool the planet while chocking cities and killing people. Massive corporate fraud on VW's scale is now a denier's best friend.

Talk about a topsy-turvy world....

The Department of Oops - David Rose Edition

From David Rose in the Daily Mail, March 2013:
The graph shows a world stubbornly refusing to warm. Indeed, it shows the world is soon set to be cooler.

Do you think these data show the world getting "cooler" after David Rose said it would?

No, I don't either.

David Rose gets another -1. (I hope someone out there is keeping his total score.)

Antarctic Sea Ice Max Declines by a Record Amount

Antarctic sea ice has peaked for the year, and it's significantly below last year's peak -- 1.3 million km2 below in fact.

Or, as they like to say, 14,500 Manhattan's below last year.

Or, 3 times the size of California.

It's the lowest peak since 2008. In fact, the maximum's year-over-year decline is the largest ever seen in the satellite era.

That doesn't mean the long-term Antarctic sea ice trend is reversing -- it's still very much upward.

This reversal, has, though, given a sharp reversal to annualized southern sea ice extent:

But it's still far above the trendline.

It will be fun to watch what happens from here. (But no, a resumed increase won't disprove manmade global warming.)

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Africa's Future is in Rooftop Solar Power

Two weeks ago (9/14) the Wall Street Journal had a special supplement section on energy. One of their Africa correspondents, Drew Hinshaw, wrote from Ghana about his family's problems getting electricity from the grid there, especially now that he has an infant son -- the power is unreliable, with frequent daylong outages.

600 million Africas, he wrote, more than half the continent's population, are not connected to a power line. Those that are often have intermittent and unreliable service.

So Hinshaw put in rooftop solar where he lives, spending $3000 for two solar panels and lead-acid batteries that meet his family's basic requirements -- a refrigerator, fans, laptop, and modem.

His article. titled "So Much Sun, So Little Electricity," was accompanied with some data, which I've converted to the graphical form below. It shows, it seems to me, that the future prosperity of African societies will not come only from a vast fossil fuel infrastructure like the developed countries have, but will instead include a large amount from active individual and local efforts to utilize the the continent's most easily accessible resource.

Sunday, September 20, 2015

The Upcoming Supermoon Lunar Eclipse

This will be good, especially if you're on the west coast of the U.S.: a rare supermoon lunar eclipse next Sunday evening, followed by a bright supermoon the next night.

"Supermoon" means the moon is full and at its closest approach (perigee) to the Earth, meaning it will look larger than usual (and 14% larger than at apogee). There have only been 5 of these since 1900; the last was in 1982, and the next won't happen until 2033.

It will be especially convenient on the U.S. west coast, because the moon rises early in the evening, so kids will be able to see it without staying up late. This site has details for many of the major cities that will be able to view at least part of the eclipse -- western Europe will be able to see the ending of the eclipse Monday morning, and New York City can view the maximum at 10:47 pm Sunday evening.

The Oregonian has details for this part of the world:
For viewing in Portland and northern Oregon, the eclipse begins at 5:11 p.m., Sunday, Sept., 27, 2015. That's before it gets dark and before the moon rises, but it only gets better.

The maximum eclipse is at 7:47 p.m. next Sunday evening and continues until 10:22 p.m., for a duration of five hours and 11 minutes. For 72 of those minutes, the only light hitting the full moon will be a reddish glow from sunrises and sunsets around the globe. The full moon takes place at 7:50 p.m. PDT next Sunday.

The moonrise that evening is at 6:58 p.m., at 88 degrees (or almost due east). The sunset is at 6:59 p.m., so the sky should be getting dark as the moon goes into its full eclipse at 7:11 p.m. next Sunday. The moon will be just 8 degrees above the eastern horizon at the instant of the greatest eclipse, making the event more spectacular than during an eclipse occurs with the moon high overhead.

Saturday, September 19, 2015

Another Turd from Tony Heller (AKA "Steve Goddard")

Tony Heller -- the real name of the blogger Steve Goddard -- is so angry no one takes him seriously anymore that every other post of his (literally) is covered with spittle as he rants and raves that all climate scientistgs are criminals and frauds who have Satan over for tea.

Problem is, Heller has thoroughly earned his disreputation, with boneheaded errors like this [retraction] and this, for which even Judith Curry called his analysis "bogus."

Heller produces turds like clockwork. Here's yet another:

This is another lie, as only Steve Goddard could produce.

The Hadley Center's HadCRUT4 data series for the Southern Hemisphere is here. Here's the explanation of their file format. Notice what it says about columns 11 and 12 (click to enlarge):

If you can't read that, the last bullet item is:
Columns 11 and 12 are the lower and upper bounds of the 95% confidence interval of the combined effects of all the uncertainties described in the HadCRUT4 error model (measurement and sampling, bias and coverage uncertainties).
Thus, the 5-95% confidence limits for the HadCRUT4 SH global temperature anomaly for January 1850 are -1.055°C and -0.058°C (top line, far right) -- a huge range in accuracy, with error bars ~ 90%, and definitely not the 0.001°C Goddard claims. (Without knowing the instruments involved -- which Goddard does not -- we can't say if the precision is warranted or not. In any case, the number comes from a model, not from raw measurements.)

The effect on long-term trends: zilch.

There's a reason everyone but the Heartland Institute has dismissed Goddard as a crackpot....

Heisenberg, Schrödinger and Ohm are in a car....

Heisenberg, Schrödinger and Ohm are in a car.

They get pulled over. Heisenberg is driving and the cop asks him "Do you know how fast you were going?"

"No, but I know exactly where I am" Heisenberg replies.

The cop says "You were doing 55 in a 35." Heisenberg throws up his hands and shouts "Great! Now I'm lost!"

The cop thinks this is suspicious and orders him to pop open the trunk. He checks it out and says "Do you know you have a dead cat back here?"

"We do now, asshole!" shouts Schrödinger.

The cop moves to arrest them. Ohm resists

(Thanks Jim.)

Cyclonic Energy at Record High

August had the highest global ACE value -- Accumulated Cyclone Energy -- of any August since records began in 1970. [data]

It's not a perfect metric of cyclonic energy -- it doesn't include a storm's size, for example, as I wrote about here and here-- but it does seem the most popular and the most published.

Of course, August also saw the highest sea-surface temperatures according to HadSST3 data (since 1850) and NOAA data (since 1880). Just a coincidence I'm sure.